The Future Outlook: Growth Projections for 2025 and Beyond

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Europe’s digital payment landscape is expected to experience significant growth. By 2028, retail E-Commerce in Western Europe is projected to exceed USD 800 billion, driven by increased digital payment adoption, according to eMarketer. The volume of non-cash transactions in Europe is set to surpass 600 billion by 2028, marking a substantial shift toward cashless payments, according to Capgemini Research Institute. The B2B non-cash transactions volume will also grow at over +10% CAGR.

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These trends reflect the widespread acceptance of digital payments and the need for businesses to adapt to the increasing demand for secure, fast, and convenient transactions. As E-Commerce continues to rise, businesses will need to offer seamless and secure payment experiences to retain customer loyalty. Eastern Europe’s growing E-Commerce and mobile payment adoption will contribute significantly to this digital transformation, with countries like Poland, Romania, and Turkey leading the way.

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Pay by Bank Gains Traction

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Pay by Bank is emerging as a strong alternative in Europe’s payment market. In 2024, over 30% of consumers in Western Europe were willing to use Pay by Bank for online payments, drawn by its fee-free nature, according to YouGov & Brite Payments. The Netherlands leads Pay by Bank adoption, with over 80% of consumers using it monthly.

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This growth is fueled by its security features and seamless integration with banking apps. Though still in the early stages compared to other payment methods, Pay by Bank’s adoption is expected to rise as more consumers prioritize secure, low-cost payment options. Its popularity is increasing in markets like the UK, France, and Germany. In Eastern Europe, Pay by Bank adoption is slower, but countries like Poland and Romania are beginning to explore this method, spurred by the growing use of real-time payments and the demand for more efficient payment solutions.

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Card Payments Remain Dominant

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Despite the growing popularity of alternative payment methods, cards remain Europe's primary payment option. In 2023, card payments accounted for over 60% of transactions in Europe, according to Capgemini Research Institute, underscoring their widespread appeal. The UK and France continue to favor cards, especially for contactless payments, which have seen a surge in adoption. In the UK, contactless payments surpassed 18 billion transactions in 2023 and are projected to reach 25 billion by 2033, as per UK Finance & Accenture. Although alternatives like Pay by Bank are gaining ground, cards remain vital due to their universal acceptance and security. In Eastern Europe, cards still dominate, especially in Poland, where debit and credit cards represent a large share of online transactions. The adoption of contactless cards is also rising in countries like the Czech Republic and Slovakia, indicating a growing preference for secure, fast payment methods.

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Digital Wallets and Mobile Payments Surge

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Digital wallets are becoming a leading payment method, especially in Western Europe. In 2024, more than 20% of consumers in Germany used digital wallets weekly, driven by their speed, convenience, and security, according to YouGov & Brite Payments. The UK and France are also seeing consistent growth in wallet adoption, though at slower rates. Mobile payments are gaining significant traction among younger consumers who prefer them over traditional methods, pushing businesses to adopt mobile-friendly solutions.

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Popular platforms like Apple Pay and Google Pay are essential for meeting the demand for fast, secure payments. In Eastern Europe, digital wallets are rising in popularity, particularly in Turkey, where services like BKM Express and Paycell dominate, mirroring a shift towards mobile-first solutions. Countries like Poland and Hungary are also adopting digital wallets, driven by younger, tech-savvy consumers seeking efficient, secure payment methods.

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Real-Time Bank Transfers on the Rise in Eastern Europe

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In Eastern Europe, real-time bank transfers are gaining popularity as consumers prioritize speed and security. Poland leads this trend, with over 65% of internet users adopting BLIK in 2024, according to Gemius & IAB Polska. Services like PayU and Przelewy24 are integral to Poland’s digital payment ecosystem, helping to drive this adoption. Similarly, Hungary is experiencing growth in SEPA-based instant payment systems, further highlighting the shift toward real-time, account-to-account payments. These systems allow businesses to settle payments instantly, providing a competitive edge in today’s fast-paced digital economy. The rise of real-time payments is expected to reduce reliance on traditional cards, especially as consumers seek faster, more secure alternatives. In Turkey, QR code payments are also growing, driven by the expanding mobile payment infrastructure and aligning with the region’s shift towards real-time solutions.

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Payment preferences in Europe vary significantly between regions. In Western Europe, digital wallets and mobile payments are becoming increasingly popular, while traditional card payments continue to play a major role. For instance, mobile wallet adoption in Germany, the UK, and France is rising, particularly among younger consumers. In Eastern Europe, however, cards remain dominant, especially in countries like Turkey and Poland, where debit and credit cards represent a large portion of online transactions. The success of local payment methods like BLIK in Poland and Paycell in Turkey demonstrates a preference for tailored, region-specific solutions. Businesses must understand these regional differences to provide payment solutions that cater to local consumer behaviors and regulatory environments. As mobile payments and real-time bank transfers grow in Eastern Europe, companies should ensure their payment systems align with these evolving preferences.

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